May 4th, 2022
Daily Trends in COVID-19 Cases in the United States Reported to CDC
7-Day moving average
With warm spring weather upon us and Omicron in decline, Americans are sure acting as if the COVID-19 pandemic has passed. Not so fast, says Joel Achenbach; there’s a new variant in town:
The latest member of the rogue’s gallery of variants and subvariants is the ungainly named BA.2.12.1, part of the omicron gang. Preliminary research suggests it is about 25 percent more transmissible than the BA.2 subvariant that is currently dominant nationally, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC said the subvariant has rapidly spread in the Northeast in particular, where it accounts for the majority of new infections.
Karen Weintraub explains where we currently stand with Omicron:
The omicron variant is responsible for virtually all infections in the United States, she said, but the BA.1 version, which predominated until February, has now been largely replaced by BA.2, accounting for 68% of infections nationwide. A subvariant called BA.2.12.1 is now gaining steam, accounting for nearly 30% of cases nationwide and a majority of cases in New York state, where it is believed to have originated.
As the world started to recover from the terrible damage caused by the Delta variant at the end of 2021, Omicron emerged as a significantly more contagious new variant and surged in the first quarter of 2022. In fact, the new variant was so contagious that huge numbers of Americans were infected with Omicron over the winter, including many who were fully vaccinated and even boosted. The CDC reported last week that 60% of all Americans now have immunologic evidence of prior infection from any of the SARS-CoV-2 variants. Most of the infections happened during the latest Omicron surge. Melissa Jenco says the strongest surge occurred in children and adolescents:
About 75% of children and adolescents have evidence of a previous COVID-19 infection and about one-third of those infections came during the omicron surge this winter, according to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Evidence of prior infection doesn’t eliminate the recommendation for everyone 5 years old and up to get vaccinated and boosted:
Experts are continuing to urge everyone who is eligible to get vaccinated and boosted, as they don’t know how long the antibodies will provide protection. Reinfections are possible, especially as new variants emerge.
“We know SARS-CoV-2 infection can cause severe disease, whereas COVID-19 vaccination is safe and effective at preventing it, so, as a pediatrician and a parent I would absolutely continue to endorse that children get vaccinated even if they have been previously infected,” said Kristie E.N. Clarke, C.D.R., M.D., M.S.C.R., FAAP, co-lead for the CDC’s COVID-19 Epidemiology & Surveillance Taskforce Seroprevalence Team.
It’s unlikely that COVID-19 will ever be eliminated, Jennifer Henderson discovered:
“We’re hoping for control,” [Dr. Anthony] Fauci said, which would involve a combination of common-sense hygiene and mitigation measures, intermittent vaccination, and treatment with effective antivirals and monoclonal antibodies.
As for the next generation of COVID shots, and how regularly they would be needed, Fauci was both optimistic and realistic.
“I would hope that we get to the point where immunity lasts long enough where we only intermittently need to be boosted,” he said, adding that he doesn’t think a schedule of receiving shots as often as once every 4 months is feasible.
Gaining control of the pandemic will be challenging, Achenbach explains, because new mutations are inevitable:
The coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has had billions of chances to reconfigure itself as it has spread across the planet, and it continues to evolve, generating new variants and subvariants at a clip that has kept scientists on their toes. Two-and-a-half years after it first spilled into humans, the virus has repeatedly changed its structure and chemistry in ways that confound efforts to bring it fully under control.
And it’s not showing signs of settling down into a drowsy old age. Even with all the changes so far, it still has abundant evolutionary space to explore, according to virologists who are tracking it closely. What that means in practical terms is that a virus that’s already extremely contagious could become even more so.
The pandemic isn’t over yet. It’s reasonable and advisable to remain cautious and know that all the layers of protection (vaccines, face masks, hand washing, avoiding large crowds and crowded indoor spaces) when used together can help prevent infections and serious outcomes from COVID-19.
